What on Earth is happening?

Meher H Mehta

There is a fever raging in our world. The Earth's temperature has risen by 1.8 degrees Celsius since 1988, so scientists tell us. I have with me a copy of TIME Intel11ational of 2 January 1989 with the cover depicting a tied and fettered world as Planet of the Year. It warned then of what might happen as a consequence of rising temperatures caused primarily by man's indiscriminate use of its resources. And happen it has as the IPCC report has almost 19 years later placed its facts before us. We are now warned that another 20 years hence, give or take, planet Earth will be warmer by a further 2 degrees C. The consequences of that are already being manifest in a variety of ways.

As a simple analogy, if human body temperature rises above the normal of 98.6 degrees F we get a fever and feel disorientated. If it remains at 100 degrees F, say, for any length of time we call a doctor and get our condition corrected. Continuing temperatures higher than that of a sustainable level presents a danger. It's the same with our Earth which is crying out for correction, but where are the doctors that it needs? The short answer to that is us, the same each one of us who put our world in the condition it is today, and continue to do so as ifthere is "no tomorrow." In that assumption we might well be prophetic.

India has been invited, among other leading industrial nations to join the G8 countries in their deliberations to determine what large scale preventive measures must be taken on a global cum nation-wide scale to reduce the effects of global warming. The findings will be far reaching and measures proposed drastic, that will impact upon us all collectively and as individuals. These will mainly be, because of the following:

Water: By 2025, two-thirds of the world's people are likely to be living in areas of acute water stress. Glaciers are melting worldwide at an alarming rate that will seriously affect the fresh flow of water to rivers that feed from them. (See Himalayan glaciers 'melting fast'). Interrelated to human population increase, underground fresh water aquifers are getting seriously depleted. (See The Challenge of Sustainable Water).

Energy : Oil production could peak and supplies could start to decline by 2010, with no alternative clean sources of energy for commercial use in sight.

Climate change: The world's greatest environmental challenge, with increased stonns, floods, drought, and species losses have been predicted.

Biodiversity: Many scientists believe that the Earth is now entering its sixth great extinction phase.

Pollution: Hazardous chemicals are now found in the bodies of all new-born babies, and an estimated one in four people worldwide are exposed to unhealthy concentrations of air pollutants.

All of these problems are linked and urgent, so a list of priorities is of little help. It is pointless to preserve species and habitats, for example, if climate change will destroy them anyway, or to develop novel crops if the water they need is not there. How does one, for instance, stop glaciers in the Himalaya from receding? There is no one single solution in slowing down the process of ice melt in the world (including the Himalaya) that can be tackled on a stand alone basis. It involves the collective action of each one of us and those in the world community to reduce global warming and to contain the rising temperature of the Earth, without which there will be a catastrophic and snowballing effect in all things. This is central to all of our problems.

In this article I have endeavoured to explain, from its genesis to the present; that which is happening in the Himalaya, which again for instance, is but one aspect of global wanning as, say, in the loss of species, floods, drought, rising sea levels, erratic rainfall, the drying of ground-water levels, et al.

And underlying all these pressures is that of human population. There are already more than six billion of us and based on present trends, we shall probably number about 8.9 billion by 2050 (source: the UN). Population growth means something else too; although the proportion of people living in poverty is continuing to fall, the absolute goes on rising, because fecundity outstrips our efforts to improve their lives. Poverty matters, because it leaves many people no choice but to exploit the environment, and fuels frustration.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its report earlier this year, based upon the findings of over 2500 scientists the world over covering a research period of six years. It places the responsibility directly upon human beings for the state of the health of our planet as it is today. The Earth too has a sustainable temperature level and derives its energy from the sun. This sustainable level has been artificially tampered with and increased through excessive human consumption and emissions of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide into the atmosphere as never before. The report has been carried in all the major newspapers of the world and can be read by browsing through major search engines on the internet. It is impossible now to shelter behind the guise of split opinion or for sceptics to hold to the concept of "natural phenomena". It is true that the Earth has a corrective system of its own which we call natural phenomenon, but it is equally true that it can no longer sustain itself in the face of such wanton abuse that we have heaped upon it.

In summary, man has been using natural resources for centuries without caring about their replenishment and it is clear now that nature will not oblige us much longer. Large scale agricultural and industrial activities have not only been exhausting the resources but also damaging the environment irreparably. Pollutants, which have been released in the atmosphere since the coming of the industrial age, have been heating the planet abnonnally. Glaciers are melting, it no longer snows in certain temperate regions during early winter, sea levels will are expected to rise inundating low lands, while the air that we breathe will get more and more poisonous and serious water shortages will be manifest. In other words, life on Earth may become impossible over the next few centuries. Scientists have shown that the most effective solutions, even if they are put into action from tomorrow, cannot undo the damage for centuries. Therefore, if global temperatures indeed rise from between one to six degrees Celsius on an average by the end of this century, as predicted, mankind can only pray for a helping hand to guide it to the grave it has been digging for itself.

The face of the world is changing

The past twelve years have experienced 11 of the globally hottest on record, and by 2100 the world is expected to be significantly wanner and certainly very uncomfortable. By mid-century, and by way of some examples, scientists predict, that we could see the tropical forests of Eastem Amazonia replaced by savanna, while in Europe many mountain species maybe lost. Rising ocean temperahlres would further damage Australia's Great Barrier Reef and could trigger mega-droughts in the USA. The continued melting of Himalayan glaciers is predicted to increase flooding, followed by water shortages on an unprecedented scale affecting over a billion people in Asia, mainly India, China and Nepal. In the Northem hemisphere the spring freshwater ice now arises earlier with a palpable impact on feeding grounds and natural habitats. Ice melt and thermal expansion have already raised sea levels. The, rapidly shrinking of the Greenland ice sheets and rising sea-levels as well as ocean temperatures, could directly affect over a 100 million people from lew lying Bangladesh to coastal cities like London, New York and Tokyo. These are but some of the challenges which confront us as individuals, along with business houses and govemments collectively on a global scale. Our responses will need bold new initiatives to lower greenhouse emissions and to conserve energy and water resources as never before.

One generation passeth away and another generation cometh; but the Earth abideth forever. — Ecclesiastes

No, not forever: At the most, the Earth will probably last for another 4 to 5 billion years. By that time scientists predict, the Sun will have bumed up so much of its own hydrogen fuel that it will expand and incinerate the surrounding planets, including the Earth. A nuclear cataclysm, on the other hand, could destroy the Earth tomorrow. Somewhere between these extremes, and closer to where we are now, lies the life expectancy of this wondrous swirling globe of ours. How long it endures and the quality of life it can support will no longer depend alone upon the immutable laws of physics. For man has reached a point in his evolution where he has the power to affect, for better or for worse, the present and future state of the planet.

What appeared in TIME International as a warning in 1989, was based on scientific research till that time and its warnings were timely. But we let it pass. Are we going to do that again some 20 years later, even when the effects of climate change can be seen happening before our eyes, and now reinforced through published and predicted scientific evidence?

'Through most of his 2 million years or so of existence, man has thrived in Earth's environment — perhaps too well. By 1800 there were 1 billion human beings bestriding the planet. That number had doubled by 1930 and doubled again in 1975. If current birthrates hold, the world's present population of 5.l billion will doubie again in 40 years." [ As at 2007 the world population is estimated to be over 6 billion humans, with over 1 billion each in China and India, and at present day estimate, (source: the UN), we could reach 8.9 billion by 2050 ]. "The frightening irony is that this exponential growth in the human population, the very sign of homo-sapiens' success as an organism, could doom the Earth as a human habitat." And in the face of multiple species of plant and other animal life disappearing each moment of our lives at an alarn1ing rate from the face of the Earth, that of the human species keeps growing.

Humanity's current predatory relationship with nature reflects a man-centered world view that has evolved over the ages. Almost every society has had its myths about the Eimh and its origins. The ancient Chinese depicted Chaos as an enOllllOUS egg whose parts separated the earth and sky, yin and yang. The Greeks believed Gaia, the Earth, was created immediately after Chaos and gave birth to the gods. In many pagan societies, the Earth was seen as a mother, a fertile giver of life. Nature - soil, forest, sea - was endowI:'d with divinity, and mortals were subordinate to it.

The Judeo-Christian tradition introduced a radically different concept. The earth was the creation of a monotheistic God, who, after shaping, it ordered its inhabitants, in the words of Genesis, "to be fruitful and multiply, and replenish the earth and subdue it; and have dominion over the fish of the sea and the fowl of the air and over every living thing that moveth upon the Earth." The idea of "dominion" could be interpreted as an invitation to use nature as a convenience. Thus the spread of Christianity, which is generally considered to have paved the way for the development of technology, may have at the same time carried the seeds of the wanton exploitation of nature that often accompanied technical progress.

The problem now, that confronts mankind, devolves upon the socio-economic cost involved in seeking large scale correction, getting world governments to agree to common programmes, in the realization that what happens now in the third world countries has a global spin-off in the developed world as well, and that the effects of global wanning to be tackled needs a collective global approach at best.

The idea of "dominion over the fish of the sea and fowl of the air and all living things that moveth upon the Earth" appears to have given license to man to wantonly destroy the many and varied species that inhabit the Earth. Encroachments on forests, melting ice, warming seas, pollution of sea beds, erosion of mangroves and swamp lands are some of the ways that have driven species to destruction. As of 2006, the magnificent polar bears have been designated a vulnerable species. Turtles, which survived the upheavals of the last 200 million years, including the great extinction episode that eliminated the dinosaurs, now face extinction largely due to the growing demand as a popular dining delicacy and a source of traditional medicines. So too some breed of sharks and of course the rhinoceros for mistaken beliefs regarding the aphrodisiac properties of its hom and penis. And now we have it directly from the Ministry of Environment & Forests in India as expressed to members of the National Wildlife Board" that tigers are in great danger of extinction. That a tiger is killed every day, and wanton massacre over the last five years has left us with only 1500 alive in the wild. These are the figures of India's national animal, outside of the protected areas. It shows that tigers cannot survive coexistence with humans. The only good news is that the majority of 1576 tigers in protected areas, as per the 2001 census, are safe.

Himalayan glaciers 'melting fast'

The Himalaya contains the largest store of fresh water outside the polar ice caps, and feed seven great Asian rivers. In a report the conservation group WWF says, that India, China and Nepal could experience floods followed by drought in coming decades. "The rapid melting of glaciers will first increase the volume of water in rivers, causing widespread flooding. But in a few decades later this situation will change and the water level in rivers will decline, meaning massive eco and environmental problems on an unprecedented scale for people in western China, Nepal and northern India."

The glaciers, which regulate the water supply in the Ganges, Indus, Brahmaputra, Mekong, Thanlwin, Yangzte and Yellow River are believed to be retreating at a rate at about 1 0-15m (30-45ft) each year. The phenomenon is not restricted to the Himalaya, as the same consequential patterns of melting glaciers are being reported from the mountain ranges of Patagonia, Andes, the European Alps, Alaska and elsewhere the world over. Satellite tracking have reported that 35% of all major glaciers have already receded and a number within that has vanished. We have known all too well that India's Gangotri glacier is receding by 23m (75ft) each year. James Champion, grandson of the legendary F W Champion, well known photographer, conservationist and forester who lived in India for the better part of the 20th century, retracing his grandfather's steps along the Pindari glacier, 70 years later in October 2006, writes, " the great mountains themselves have of course changed a little over the decades, but the Pindari glacier, when compared with my grandfather's 1936 photograph, is but a shadow of its former self, having receded by more than two thirds due to the ever higher temperatures we are currently experiencing." The World Glacier Monitoring Service (WGMS) supported by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), collates records from across the globe. Two years ago, they concluded that 30 major glaciers, assessed as being a global representative sample, had thinned by an average 8m between 1980 and 2001.

None of this is without its impact on human society.

The Challenge of Sustainable Water

Of the many problems that confront us ahead and there are clearly several to write about, I have chosen to conclude this article by reflecting upon the water supplies around the world that are seriously stressed. Population growth and global wanning are worsening those problems.

The most dramatic conditions are in Asia, where the world's two mega countries, China and India, are grappling with deepening and unsolved water challenges. China's great northern plain, home of more than 200 million people, is generally sub-humid or arid and depends on unsustainable pumping of underground aquifers for irrigation. The Yellow River has been diverted to the point that it no longer flows into the sea. Meanwhile the water tables of Beijing and other large northern cities are falling dramatically as a result of the pumping of groundwater.

Similarly, southern India is drought prone and southern states scramble after rivers that cross state boundaries. When the rains are poor, upstream states such as Karnataka turn off the water flow to downstream states such as Tamil Nadu, with brutal consequences for farmers and communities. In nOIihern India tens of millions of bore wells are depleting groundwater much faster than it can replenish, much the same as in China.

Such problems are, of course, not limited to developing countries. Scarce water flows are bitterly contested between U.S. western states and between the U.S. and Mexico. A considerable portion of U.S. agriculture in the Great Plains depends on the vast but depleting Ogallala aquifer.

Continued population and economic growth will put still greater pressure on freshwater supplies. At this point, further claims on rivers and aquifers will mean more water for one region and increased water scarcity and ecological destabilization elsewhere.

Climate change will raise the tension even further. Hundreds of millions of people in China, India and other parts of Asia depend on river flows fed by melting glaciers in the Himalaya. Those glaciers are receding fast and many will disappear this century, and the water supply will disappear with them. Hundreds of millions of other people depend at least partly on snow melt. Yet climate change will alter the timing of those flows even if the level of snowfall remains the same. With warmer temperahlres, the melting snow will fill the rivers earlier in the spring, but will not be available for the long, dry summers.

Climate change will raise the tension even further. Hundreds of millions of people in China, India and other parts of Asia depend on river flows fed by melting glaciers in the Himalaya. Those glaciers are receding fast and many will disappear this cenhlry, and the water supply will disappear with them. Hundreds of millions of other people depend at least partly on snow melt. Yet climate change will alter the timing of those flows even if the level of snowfall remains the same. With warmer temperahlres, the melting snow will fill the rivers earlier in the spring, but will not be available for the long, dry summers.

Solutions will not be simple. Yes, better pricing of water, an expensive commodity in the future, will lead to much greater efficiency in its, harvesting, storage and use. Drip irrigation can reduce the water demand of crops. Desalination can vastly expand water supplies, though at high energy cost. Water storage systems can help farmers overcome the misery of crop failures. But these solutions presuppose vast expenditures of capital, and do not address the needs of the poor, who are unable to pay for the capital. Moreover, such solutions are often not commensurate with the scale of the challenge because they can bring huge adverse ecological consequences.

Securing water for a growing world need will require the best of science, ecology, economics, ethics and international cooperation, much in the same way as the study of climate change that the IPCC has done in mobilizing the search for scientific consensus and possible solutions.

The alternative is for wars to be fought for water and people to perish either way.

Conclusion

Let there be no illusion. Taking effective action to halt the massive injury to the Earth's environment will require a mobilization of political will, international cooperation and sacrifice unknown except in wartime. Yet humanity is in a war right now and it is not too Draconian to call it a war for survival. It is a war in which all nations must be allies. Both the causes and effects of the problems that threaten the Eatth are global, and they must be attacked globally, for all nations are tied together now by their common fate.

As man heads along at the start of the 21 century, he finds himself at a crucial turning point; the actions of those of us now will detennine the future, and possibly the very survival of the species. "We do not have generations, we only have years, in which to attempt to turn things around", warns Lester Brown, president of the Washington-based Worldwatch Institute. Every individual on the planet must be aware of its vulnerability and the urgent need to preserve it. No attempt to protect the environment will be successful in the long run unless ordinary people the world over, the housewife, peasant, factory worker, fanner, all of us, are willing to adjust our life-styles. Our wasteful careless ways must become a thing of the past. We must recycle more, procreate less, turn off lights, use mass transit, do a thousand things differently in our evetyday lives. At the other end of the scale, we need more than ever world leaders who can inspire their fellow citizens with a fiery sense of mission, like Churchill galvanized his embattled countrymen to "live their finest hour", but this time not one of nationalistic or military campaign, but a universal crusade to save the planet. We owe this not only to ourselves and our children, but also to the unborn generations who will one day inherit the Earth. Unless mankind embraces that cause totally, and without any more delay, it may have no alternative but to go out, as T S Eliot put it, "not with a bang, but a whimper", of slow extinction.

SUMMARY

A look at the issues related to Global warming and its broad implications for the Himalaya.

 

⇑ Top