Climate Change and Mountain Tourism in Northern Pakistan

Hanniah Tariq

Increasing temperatures, one of the visible consequences of climate change, can be exacerbated at higher elevations.

The highest temperatures globally recorded since 1880 were experienced in 2016 and 2020, according to NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS)¹. The devastating consequences have been felt worldwide. However, while many downstream communities have suffered, a distinct result is also the effect on our local mountain tourism industry, one of the largest sources of income in Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan. 1.72 million tourists visited the area in 2019, according to the Gilgit-Baltistan Tourism Department², and the World Travel and Tourism Council estimated that tourism accounted for 3.7% of the total economy and provided³. 34 million jobs in 20213. With the announcement that as of January 2018, tourists from 24 countries can visit the country without prearranging their visas, something that was a deterrent to some due to the lengthy process involved, tourism to the north will likely continue to see an increase in the coming years. It is, therefore, necessary to consider the relationship between climate change and adventure tourism in the context of tourism and human impact in northern Pakistan.

Increasing temperatures, one of the visible consequences of climate change, can be exacerbated at higher elevations. Utilizing temperature records of meteorological observatories in the northern mountains, an article in the Pakistan Journal of Meteorology concluded that the “warming trend in northern mountains is double as compared to the lower elevations”, with the south displaying an increase of 0.76°C and the north with 1.5°C⁴. In 2016 the Deputy Director Ministry of Climate Change stated that“temperatures in most of the mountainous valleys never used to go beyond 30°C during summer, but now it surpasses 40°C at times”⁵. According to a report by Water Resources Research Institute, National Agricultural Research Centre and the UNDP, this rise has two effects on the glaciers: accelerated melting and the “higher temperatures can cause precipitation to occur in liquid state instead of solid state, even at very high altitudes”. Not surprisingly, the Chief Meteorologist of the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) pointed out in 2014 that a study of six glaciers in the Karakoram range discovered all of them melting at quicker rates⁶. By 2016 the Deputy Director estimated that 5000 glaciers in northern areas of the Chitral district and Gilgit-Baltistan region were melting at an accelerated rate. The ‘Karakoram Anomaly’ concept has instigated a considerable debate on the stability and mass increase in the range in the last decade. However, an ETH Zürich university study in 2021 analyzed 220,000 glaciers and found that Karakoram glaciers are also now losing mass⁷.

Locals have experienced this first-hand. “Glaciers have started melting visibly,” says Zahid Rajput, President of Khurpa Care Pakistan and local guide from Baltistan. “If you start measuring from K-2 basecamp, for example, every year the glacier is melting down by 9 to 10 feet”. He states that avalanches are also increasing in two seasons, once at the beginning of the winter and once at the beginning of the summer. The results are more accidents in the mountains for adventure tourists. Winter avalanches are not as hazardous because it is powdered snow as compared to the summers when it is wet snow. Avalanches with wet snow are much more treacherous for climbers, even on a fixed rope. More tourists are now moving to winter climbing to avoid the higher temperatures, which is an exceptionally challenging undertaking for guides, porters, and tourists. The fear of avalanches in the summer could significantly reduce groups in the future, negatively affecting local livelihood.

Fast melting or receding glaciers also make navigation more difficult. The Hopper glacier, for example, where some of the local glacier traverse and rescue trainings are undertaken, has been receding, making it harder for trainers to plan courses. Another disturbing development due to rising temperatures is the progressive formation of glacial lakes which makes finding new routes repeatedly on glaciers a problem for guides and groups. For example, on the route to K-2, a stream crossing to get to Khoburshe camp used to be relatively easy. Now, due to the increasing waterbody, trekkers sometimes have to spend hours circumventing the lake to get to the camp.

The increasing human footprint on the glaciers also significantly contributes to glacial melt and environmental degradation. Metal cans and other equipment left on the glaciers by groups conduct further heat from the sun. To rectify this increasing problem, the National Climate Change Policy promised to “Develop auditing systems for trekking expeditions to reduce fuel and waste generation” in 2012. However, glaciers remain strewed with human waste despite several attempts by NGOs to carry out clean-up expeditions. Prevention, in this case, is easier and cheaper than the cure. Stronger regulations will have to be formulated and implemented rigorously if we are to continue enjoying increased employment opportunities in the north resulting from growing tourism while not simultaneously destroying the natural landscape which attracts this tourism.

Increased precipitation leads to further problems like floods and glacial melt. Rajput had never experienced rain on the K-2 base camp eight years ago. Now rain is sometimes encountered up to the advanced base camp. This causes further glacial melt. From 2001 (when he started his career) till 2018, he thinks the glacier may have moved about 600-700 m. He describes that at Concordia point, where there were army camps, K-2 used to be visible in the beginning. It has shifted so much that the view has now completely changed. The increased precipitation is also leading to more avalanches, directly affecting adventure tourism in the north.

Trekking and mountaineering will not be the only sports affected by changing weather patterns and rising temperatures. Rock climbing, a growing sport in Pakistan, will be troubled by increasing temperatures. According to a report by Yosemite geologist Greg Stock and U.S. Geological Survey civil engineer Brian Collins, “hotter temperatures cause more rocks to release and ultimately weaken the overall face, making rock fall more likely from traditional triggers like melt-freeze cycles and rainstorms”. Similarly, skiing which relies on consistent snowfall will be affected by erratic precipitation as well as shifting snowlines. Whereas many ski resorts in Europe, North America and Australia have begun utilizing snowmaking machines to combat this, the industry in Pakistan may not be able to make such investments in the near future. White-water rafting, a developing adventure sport in the country, may suffer from increased flooding resulting from precipitation and glacial melt.

Some of the reasons for these rapidly melting glaciers outlined by the Deputy Director Ministry of Climate Change include “high paced urbanization of the mountain valleys and increased vehicular traffic”⁸. Locals also agree that building new roads has a considerable role in increasing temperatures. According to Rajput, pollution and, consequently, temperatures will be sure to rise higher in the future as a result of the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). “If thousands of containers, 22-24 wheeler vehicles and trucks are continuously moving on the CPEC road, then surely there will be more problems”. Forestry is one of the only solutions, in his opinion. But to offset the effects billions of trees will need to be planted according to experts he has met. But there are no plans observed in the near future for a large-scale effort in this respect. It is, however, a necessary measure as Global Forest Watch reports that Pakistan lost 9.75 kha of tree cover from 2001 to 2021⁹.

While speaking on the issue with Dr. Ashiq Ahmad Khan, conservationist and winner of the IUCN (World Commission on Protected Areas) Kenton Miller Award, another difficulty came to light¹⁰. Commenting on anthropogenic (human activities) reasons for climate change, he mentioned greenhouse gases as a major contender. He asserted that when he looks at the causes, some of them are beyond our understanding, but some are easily understood. “Pollution is one thing that has already been proved to cause changes in the system, but if we look at the whole of the Karakoram range or Gilgit-Baltistan, in general, there is very little source of pollution in that area,” he states. In fact, in 2015 it was reported that the total country “accounts for less than one percent of total global emissions”. But as Dr. Khan points out, the geographical location of that area is such that it is close to the border with China and the nearest province to Pakistan is Xinjiang (a 1.6 million km raised to 2 administrative sector with a thriving oil, gas, and mineral extraction industry). The area mostly depends on coal for energy which is problematic for neighbouring areas like northern Pakistan. “Although we do not know the magnitude …there can’t be a second opinion that we are getting some effects from the adjoining countries”, adds Dr Khan, “unless the countries have some sort of agreements to cooperate on matters relating to natural habitats, natural flora and fauna, things will not survive”.

Consequently, transnational research and cooperation will be critical in order to understand and start to mitigate the effects of these gases and pollution migrating across our borders. Irrespective of internal changes, if the same is not implemented on the other side of the border, local efforts will not make a difference. This is corroborated by the National Climate Change Policy, where number two of the nine crucial climate change threats to Pakistan mentioned is the “Projected recession of the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayan (HKH) glaciers due to global warming and carbon soot deposits from trans-boundary pollution sources, threatening water inflows into the Indus River System (IRS)”.

As is evident, there are no easy solutions, but careful consideration of this range of issues will help the growing adventure tourism industry face the challenges posed by climate change.

Summary

Hanniah Tariq, Guest Editor for this Volume of THJ, simply and frankly lays out the challenges to the future of climbing and hiking, that climate change is causing in the Karakoram ranges. This is fully applicable to India’s and Nepal’s Himalaya so it is important to read, listen and act. Maybe forging bonds to find solutions to mitigate the Climate Change crisis will be the glue for these countries - after all this is a 'common enemy'!

Author: See page 76

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